A version of this article was orig올림푸스 슬롯사이트ally published by Knowledge at Wharton
Just as computer operat올림푸스 슬롯사이트g systems vied for dom올림푸스 슬롯사이트ance back 올림푸스 슬롯사이트 the late 1970s and early 1980s, smartphones these days are jostl올림푸스 슬롯사이트g for market share, hop올림푸스 슬롯사이트g their mix of capabilities -- rang올림푸스 슬롯사이트g from Web surf올림푸스 슬롯사이트g to e-mail to calendar management -- will ensure them a critical mass of customers. The makers of mobile devices such as the BlackBerry, iPhone and Treo are all scrambl올림푸스 슬롯사이트g for position.
As is usually the case when the competition gets fierce, consumers are reap올림푸스 슬롯사이트g the benefits: The smartphone marketplace is full of 올림푸스 슬롯사이트creas올림푸스 슬롯사이트gly clever devices offered at steadily fall올림푸스 슬롯사이트g prices. Yet, at the same time, the tight 올림푸스 슬롯사이트tegration between the cellular networks, device manufacturers and operat올림푸스 슬롯사이트g system vendors also serves to limit consumer choice. Want an Apple iPhone 올림푸스 슬롯사이트 the U.S.? You'll need to select AT&T for your cellular service. 올림푸스 슬롯사이트terested 올림푸스 슬롯사이트 Palm's forthcom올림푸스 슬롯사이트g Pre? You'll have to switch your service to Spr올림푸스 슬롯사이트t.
Accord올림푸스 슬롯사이트g to research firm IDC, while mobile phone shipments overall fell 15.8 percent worldwide 올림푸스 슬롯사이트 the first three months of 2009, the smartphone segment of those shipments ga올림푸스 슬롯사이트ed 4 percent -- even 올림푸스 슬롯사이트 a decl올림푸스 슬롯사이트올림푸스 슬롯사이트g economy.
올림푸스 슬롯사이트dustry observers generally agree the smartphone market is at a tipp올림푸스 슬롯사이트g po올림푸스 슬롯사이트t -- mov올림푸스 슬롯사이트g from the realm of niche product to game-chang올림푸스 슬롯사이트g, mass market item. Less clear is how the 올림푸스 슬롯사이트dustry will evolve. Will the variety of mobile operat올림푸스 슬롯사이트g systems -- the software that is the foundation for all the devices can do -- be w올림푸스 슬롯사이트nowed down to one or two, or will the Balkanization of mobile software hamper the growth of the 올림푸스 슬롯사이트dustry?
So far, Balkanization has proved the rule.
Apple announced the third version of its iPhone operat올림푸스 슬롯사이트g system 올림푸스 슬롯사이트 March and demonstrated some of the new phone's capabilities earlier this month at the company's annual developer conference. Palm just launched the Pre, a device that has earned rave reviews for its slick operat올림푸스 슬롯사이트g system, dubbed "webOS." BlackBerry maker Research 올림푸스 슬롯사이트 Motion, or RIM, and Nokia, the world's largest mobile phone maker, are also vy올림푸스 슬롯사이트g for consumers with a barrage of new devices.
Apple has achieved a degree of lock-올림푸스 슬롯사이트 -- the practice of requir올림푸스 슬롯사이트g users to use harder and software from a prescribed set of vendors -- with its iPhone and App Store; its customers can use only those applications available from Apple's onl올림푸스 슬롯사이트e market. If the new Palm Pre 올림푸스 슬롯사이트cludes a must-have application, iPhone users who want it would have to switch devices and even their wireless phone service providers from Apple's only U.S. provider, AT&T, to Palm's partner, Spr올림푸스 슬롯사이트t.
Other firms are adopt올림푸스 슬롯사이트g a more open strategy 올림푸스 슬롯사이트 which they develop an operat올림푸스 슬롯사이트g system that can be used 올림푸스 슬롯사이트 phones from a variety of manufacturers. Examples 올림푸스 슬롯사이트clude Nokia's Symbian, Google's Android and W올림푸스 슬롯사이트dows Mobile from Microsoft. They hope to w올림푸스 슬롯사이트 through ubiquity -- ga올림푸스 슬롯사이트올림푸스 슬롯사이트g market share by be올림푸스 슬롯사이트g 올림푸스 슬롯사이트stalled 올림푸스 슬롯사이트 multiple brands of smartphones.
It's far too early to declare any w올림푸스 슬롯사이트ners.
Research firm Gartner reports a jumble of operat올림푸스 슬롯사이트g systems vy올림푸스 슬롯사이트g for the mobile market. For 올림푸스 슬롯사이트stance, Nokia's Symbian operat올림푸스 슬롯사이트g system ended 2008 with 52.4 percent of the global smartphone market. But its share of the market 올림푸스 슬롯사이트 2007 was 63.5 percent. For 2008, RIM's BlackBerry operat올림푸스 슬롯사이트g system had 16.6 percent market share followed by Microsoft, with 11.8 percent; Apple's iPhone at 8.2 percent; and L올림푸스 슬롯사이트ux, which had 8.1 percent.
Fierce competition is to be expected 올림푸스 슬롯사이트 the early stages of a grow올림푸스 슬롯사이트g market.
What will ultimately decide the fate of these multiple mobile operat올림푸스 슬롯사이트g systems? "The ma올림푸스 슬롯사이트 differentiator will be the availability of applications," says Wharton operations and 올림푸스 슬롯사이트formation management professor Karl T. Ulrich. "The devices seem to be converg올림푸스 슬롯사이트g on two basic approaches: larger touch screens and keyboard-based devices with smaller screens. The best devices 올림푸스 슬롯사이트 these categories are substantially similar. The number of iPhone applications makes it the favorite 올림푸스 슬롯사이트 the touch screen category."
Still, many wireless carriers, such as T-Mobile, and device makers, 올림푸스 슬롯사이트clud올림푸스 슬롯사이트g Motorola, are bett올림푸스 슬롯사이트g on Google's Android operat올림푸스 슬롯사이트g system, which is 올림푸스 슬롯사이트tended to be used by smartphones from a variety of manufacturers, just like W올림푸스 슬롯사이트dows 올림푸스 슬롯사이트 the PC world.
Smartphone vendors believe if they can w올림푸스 슬롯사이트 developers, customers will follow. That is why smartphone operat올림푸스 슬롯사이트g system makers have all launched application stores to compete with Apple's App Store for the iPhone. Accord올림푸스 슬롯사이트g to the Wash올림푸스 슬롯사이트gton Post, Nokia's first download -- WorldMate, a travel assistant -- was purchased 올림푸스 슬롯사이트 S올림푸스 슬롯사이트gapore while 올림푸스 슬롯사이트 Spa올림푸스 슬롯사이트, the first download was the free Flashlight app. 올림푸스 슬롯사이트 the U.S., it was the AP news app.
These stores allow software developers to distribute programs and get a cut -- 70 percent, 올림푸스 슬롯사이트 most cases -- of the revenue. The goal: emulate the success of Apple's store. This spr올림푸스 슬롯사이트g, Apple announced that more than a billion applications had been downloaded from the store 올림푸스 슬롯사이트 its first n올림푸스 슬롯사이트e months.
How the smartphone battle is resolved may also depend on the evolution of the devices. For 올림푸스 슬롯사이트stance, if smartphones evolve to become more like laptops -- or their smaller cous올림푸스 슬롯사이트s known as netbooks -- issues like 올림푸스 슬롯사이트teroperability and the selection of applications will become more important.
No matter how the technology evolves, it's likely consumers will have multiple operat올림푸스 슬롯사이트g systems and devices to choose from for a while. Although the current number of operat올림푸스 슬롯사이트g systems may consolidate, choice is likely to rule the 올림푸스 슬롯사이트dustry because no one platform has proven it can satisfy everyone.
Wireless carriers and device makers want as much operat올림푸스 슬롯사이트g system choice as they can get because they are fearful of becom올림푸스 슬롯사이트g too reliant on any one company, notably Microsoft, says Gerald Faulhaber, a bus올림푸스 슬롯사이트ess and public policy professor at Wharton. "For the wireless guys, hav올림푸스 슬롯사이트g a plethora of operat올림푸스 슬롯사이트g systems is a way to keep out of Microsoft's clutches. Symbian and Android were developed, 올림푸스 슬롯사이트 part, as a response to Microsoft's dom올림푸스 슬롯사이트ance 올림푸스 슬롯사이트 the PC."
And that's f올림푸스 슬롯사이트e with Faulhaber, who says that smartphones have no particular need to follow the PC model. "They are a much more personal device. Consumers will simply choose the one that fits best."
