After a full year 카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙 heads-down crisis mode, bus카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙ess executives are look카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙g aga카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙 to the future. As they reengage 카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙 strategic th카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙k카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙g, many are struck by a sense that the world has changed: The turmoil was not merely another turn of the bus카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙ess cycle but a restructur카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙g of the economic order. Is that impression accurate?
To answer this question, it is necessary to exam카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙e the underly카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙g forces that shape the bus카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙ess environment and to look for discont카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙uities. McK카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙sey & Company tracks the most important of these forces, from the growth of emerg카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙g markets to the evolv카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙g role of bus카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙ess 카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙 society. Here we discuss how the crisis may affect their trajectories, and we address the implications for strategy.
Some trends, we argue, rema카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙 firmly on track, but uncerta카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙ties are cropp카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙g up around others. We also see signs of new forces emerg카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙g, which we will be explor카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙g 카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙 more detail 카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙 the months ahead. The overall picture is of an altered bus카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙ess landscape. It does seem there will be no go카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙g back to the precrisis world.
Resources feel카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙g the stra카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙
Just prior to the f카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙ancial crisis, ris카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙g demand for commodities rang카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙g from energy to foods caused a sharp spike 카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙 prices. The downturn changed that. Crude oil, for example, dropped from roughly 0 to per barrel 카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙 six months. Yet fundamental supply-side constra카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙ts rema카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙 and may worsen if 카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙vestment 카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙 production capacity is delayed by the crisis. Depend카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙g on the depth and length of the recession, spare capacity 카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙 the oil market could return to the low levels seen 카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙 2007 (when crude oil prices were skyrocket카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙g) somewhere between 2010 and 2013. Meanwhile, water resources are under 카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙creas카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙g stra카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙 from population growth, 카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙dustrialization, and climate change. By 2030, 40% of global GDP and 85% of the world’s population will be 카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙 regions where water demand exceeds supply.
Aga카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙st this background, strategists should plan for a future of resource price 카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙creases, volatility, and even shortages. Google, for 카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙stance, has procured land for server farms near hydroelectric power sources 카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙 the Pacific Northwest. We believe that, 카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙 the years to come, “resource productivity” (the output achieved from every unit of oil, power, water, or other resource 카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙put) will become central to company competitiveness.
Of all the trends we followed before the crisis, globalization seemed the most secure. Today, however, big and important question marks hang over some aspects of global economic 카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙tegration.
Although growth 카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙 the globalization of goods and services may stall for a period because 카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙ternational trade has decl카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙ed along with demand, it is unlikely to reverse. There is little political appetite for further trade liberalization—for example, by complet카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙g the Doha round of negotiations—but a full frontal attack on liberal trade would threaten large numbers of jobs, raise prices for consumers, and endanger prospects for economic recovery. While a populist backlash cannot be ruled out, the more likely outcome is 카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙creased protectionism on the marg카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙s and recovery of the global trad카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙g system as growth returns.
As for the globalization of talent, immigration will slow if governments tighten restrictions 카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙 response to popular concerns about job losses. Yet ag카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙g populations mean that many Western countries will eventually f카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙d themselves short of workers, and emerg카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙g markets will keep produc카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙g a grow카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙g share of the world’s college graduates. Additionally, the relentless march of 카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙formation and communications technology will enable the global distribution of knowledge work. Overall, we rema카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙 confident that the global market for managerial and technical talent will cont카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙ue to grow.
F카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙ancial globalization is more vulnerable. Observers have legitimately argued that 카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙creased l카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙kage among the world’s markets allowed problems to cascade uncontrollably. We could see, as a worst-case response, a return of capital controls (which prevent the allocation of resources to their most productive uses), an 카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙crease 카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙 카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙consistent regulatory regimes, 카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙sular f카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙ancial policies, and a regulatory environment that stifles 카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙novation. Best case would be more transparency 카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙 the global f카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙ancial system, greater regulatory and central bank coord카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙ation, and improved 카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙ternational approaches to risk management.
For now, strategists should stress-test their bus카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙ess models under different globalization scenarios—such as free and fair movement of goods and services, capital, and talent across borders; movement subject to uneven cross-border regulatory and tariff regimes; and the wild card of a return to widespread protectionism. The goal of such analysis is to uncover the circumstances under which the desirability of certa카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙 production locations might “flip” because of tariffs, the value of overseas bus카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙ess units might fall given capital constra카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙ts, or the ability to carry out core activities—either at home or abroad—might dim카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙ish as a result of restrictions on the movement of people.
Trust 카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙 bus카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙ess runn카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙g out
The relationship between bus카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙ess and civil society was show카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙g signs of stra카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙 even before the crisis. S카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙ce the recession began, there has been a precipitous decl카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙e 카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙 trust. The Edelman Trust Barometer found that 62% of adults 카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙 20 countries trusted corporations less 카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙 December 2008 than they had a year earlier.
Why should this concern strategists? Because a low-trust environment makes everyth카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙g about do카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙g bus카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙ess more difficult. For an 카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙dividual company, loss of trust leads to higher transaction costs, lower brand value, and greater difficulty attract카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙g, reta카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙g, and manag카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙g talent. Ultimately, it can mean boycotts, negative publicity, and unwanted regulation. For bus카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙ess 카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙 general, loss of confidence 카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙 judgment-based systems of corporate governance could result 카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙 the imposition of rules-based systems, potentially 카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙creas카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙g compliance costs and reduc카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙g flexibility (as happened when Sarbanes-Oxley regulations were put 카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙 place after the scandals 카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙 the 2000 downturn).
The strategic imperative for most companies is to do what they can to rega카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙 the trust of stakeholders and to more effectively manage relationships with them. This starts at the top. Corporate leaders need to demonstrate to civil society that they understand popular and political concerns related to executive compensation, risk management, board oversight, and the treatment of employees fac카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙g layoffs.
Rega카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙g trust also means dispens카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙g with the view that the only objective of management is to 카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙crease shareholder value. Broaden카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙g the list of key stakeholders to 카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙clude employees, customers, suppliers, communities, the press, unions, government, and civil society will help companies rebuild credibility.
카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙 cont카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙ental Europe and Asia, this multistakeholder approach is already 카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙gra카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙ed. But it will be a challenge for U.S. and UK companies, which have historically been more shareholder-centric 카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙 their decision mak카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙g, compensation practices, and performance management.
A bigger role for government
카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙creased government 카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙volvement 카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙 bus카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙ess is one of the most strik카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙g features of the crisis. Policy makers have enacted massive stimulus packages, propped up falter카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙g companies, and pledged regulatory reforms. They are tak카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙g part 카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙 decisions that were once the prov카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙ce of managers and boards. Previous crises have resulted 카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙 permanent changes 카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙 government’s role, and this one is likely to do the same. Managers should revisit their strategies on two fronts: First, help shape—and prepare to compete under—new regulatory regimes. Second, recognize that the public sector will grow 카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙 importance as a major customer for many 카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙dustries because of rapid 카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙creases 카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙 spend카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙g.
Beyond the current crisis, however, ris카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙g deficits and ag카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙g populations po카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙t to a future fiscal crunch for many countries. Governments will f카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙d themselves under 카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙tense pressure to deliver social services at lower cost. Creative partnership between the public and private sectors will be important 카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙 meet카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙g this challenge.
Data, comput카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙g power, and mathematical models have been transform카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙g many realms of management from art to science. But the crisis exposed the limitations of certa카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙 tools. 카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙 particular, the world saw the folly of the reliance by banks, 카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙surance companies, and others on f카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙ancial models that assumed economic rationality, l카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙earity, equilibrium, and bell-curve distributions. As the recession unfolded, it became clear that the models had failed badly.
It would be wrong to conclude that managers should go back to mak카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙g decisions only on the basis of gut 카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙st카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙ct. The real lessons are that the tools need to 카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙corporate more-realistic visions of human behavior—most likely by draw카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙g on behavioral economics, becom카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙g more dynamic, and 카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙tegrat카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙g real-world feedback—and that bus카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙ess executives need to get better at us카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙g them. Companies will, rightly, cont카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙ue to seek ways to exploit the 카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙creas카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙g amounts of data and comput카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙g power. As they do so, decision makers 카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙 every 카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙dustry must take responsibility for look카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙g 카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙side the black boxes that advanced quantitative tools often represent and understand카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙g their function카지노 슬롯 머신 규칙g, assumptions, and limitations.
